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@itsD00D00baby

ActiveTheorist🐸 Genesis ToadProfile updated Sep 28, 2026

Last active 2026-08-27

527 messages in chat512 text messages151 ecosystem / roadmap10 memes posted

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Speculation profile

@itsD00D00baby is a long-tenured holder (day-one buyer at the 100k market cap launch, describing '.1%' sizing across cycles) who blends on-chain sleuthing with lore-driven speculation. Their core thesis mixes concrete forensic tracking — following Amber Group wallet consolidation, mapping Coinbase-linked and TWAP-buying wallets, checking Taboshi/patience eligibility across addresses — with more devotional, poetic interpretation of toadgod's 'lore' (epoch dating, kali yuga framing, imagine.sol/smile.sol contract clues). They express strong conviction toby is a best-in-class fair-launch distribution on Base, repeatedly frame $TOBY/Taboshi/Patience as a linked yield/vault system, and describe holding through drawdowns as a badge of discipline ('sleepless nights are found where conviction fades'). Their public mcap targets have moderated over time — from early 100B comparisons to a more measured 1-5B range acknowledging strong cycle competition — while still holding large personal stacks (400B+ toby) and framing themselves as a steward rather than a trader.

Show 14 messages behind this profile
  • 2024-03-17has the airdrop been distributed?
  • 2024-04-06i have over 1T toby now, have been swinging a % of the bag but only to accumulate more.
  • 2024-04-10hmmm depends on your time horizon and target - short answer is no
  • 2024-04-10for sure, its worth $1000 for every 1m in market cap, so at 23m that bag is wroth 23k! ive lost a lot on chain trying to catch bags like these so dont think its all big wins lmao
  • 2024-09-20did toadgod ever explain why fdv and mcap are different now? they used to be the same, this changed a long time ago. is this the 10% supply thats put aside for future plans?
  • 2024-10-11imagine after all this its just an nft collection you have to mint with toby - thats what most projects do for a liquidity grab. toby world is gonna be huge, robust, useful
  • 2024-10-15is there any tweet where toadgod mentioned a 100b market cap goal? i cant find it and someone on twitter is suggesting toadgod said it in a tweet
  • 2024-10-22https://etherscan.io/address/0xb4107545838f79323bc8ed6fd971990029afd240 this is the initial wallet that bridged and bought toby, if you see who it was funded by and peep that address on ether scan, go down txn, you can see Amber Group wallets sending ETH back and forth the wall…
  • 2024-11-12has it been confirmed was taboshi1 what for besides collecting and burning toby?
  • 2024-11-18There isn’t an epoch 4, I believe the 4th line is “end of all epochs”. I believe the cycle starts a new
  • 2025-04-18look, im not hating, i understand too. However, evidence of this decision being purely emotional is in Peter's statement itself. "if i have to jump back in at 50-100m all good! for now no more losing value". sounds logical doesnt it? then why didnt you exit at 30m? 20m? 15m? 10…
  • 2025-06-10wtf bro. I sent you a DM on X. understand its emotional. would really like to hear how/what happened, at your convenience. to learn. also make a new wallet and paste address here (or DM on X), ill send 777,777,777 and 1 taboshi
  • 2025-07-17maybe, "liquification" and the "slow river", is distribution of cliff amounts, and "final grains", symbolically represent, the season 0 toads, as to not lose track of them? as 'a sip never a gulp' seems, on the surface, to go against 99% unlocked by sept 2025, and the remaining 1…
  • 2025-07-23if youre all in and cant sleep at night, well i wont tell u how to manage ur risk, what i will suggest is... sleepless nights are found where conviction fades. study the lore

A sample of this member’s ecosystem/roadmap messages, drawn across their history — the kind of posts that inform the summary above.

Thesis deep-dive

@itsD00D00baby — The On-Chain Archivist

Core Thesis

@itsD00D00baby is a day-one holder (bought at ~$100k market cap in March 2024) who built one of the community's most distinctive analytical practices: combining hard on-chain forensics — wallet clustering, LP flow analysis, holder-distribution comparisons — with a reflective, philosophical reading of what Tobyworld asks of its participants. Their thesis is that TOBY's edge is structural, not narrative: an unusually wide, un-cartelled distribution plus an ecosystem designed to reward attention and time held. As they put it, "attention pays u."

Distribution & Roadmap Mechanics

Their earliest contributions were forensic. In April 2024 they tracked the airdrop's effect on liquidity — "a real battle between airdrop sellers (adding toby to LP) and Toby hodlers" — and argued a large share of the 1.4m-wallet drop was permanently inert (bots, dormant wallets), which tightened effective float. Their best-known comparative finding [2024-10-11]: top-50 holders control ~24% of TOBY versus 40–50% for DOGINME, NORMIE and BRETT — "toby might have the greatest token distribution ive ever seen on a token on base."

They also did the Amber Group work, tracing a funding wallet that seeded 4–5 addresses with 3.82 ETH each that then TWAP'd into TOBY (Oct 2024), and following the consolidation into a single wallet by Oct 31. Their 2026 message about Amber still holding ~2.6T TOBY shows that ledger has been maintained for well over a year.

On the roadmap itself, they read epochs as ~122-day lines and argued [2024-11-18] there is no epoch 4 — "the 4th line is 'end of all epochs'… the cycle starts anew." On $patience they observed the claim set favored pre-run-up buyers and holders who didn't sell the local peak, and mapped the unlock schedule onto the cycle: if Nov 2025 is the top and 2026 the bottom, "patience unlocks would be 1 year into the new cycle… imagine selling bottom of bear and losing the vault." On Taboshi they read the contract itself (imagine.sol, smile.sol) for lore-linkage and framed Taboshi1 as a mechanism to make whales burn TOBY.

Coinbase / Base

Their sharpest speculative call [2024-10-22]: "What if 10% TOBY supply is reserved for COINBASE WALLET onboarding program ala COINBASE EARN" — noting Coinbase's master plan is four phases and so is Toby's. They consistently held that CEX listings are gated on liquidity depth, not desire, and pushed back on listing impatience with that framing.

Price & Market-Cap Views

They think in supply ratios rather than headline prices: 0.1% of supply (420.69B TOBY) is worth "$1,000,000 for every B in market cap" — a heuristic they've repeated across two years and extended to Taboshi (~186 tokens = 0.1%). Their calls have moved with conviction over time. In Sept 2024 they were deliberately conservative, benchmarking against DOGE (80B) and SHIB (40B) and setting their own target at "around 1-5B at best." By Nov 2024, after Taboshi shipped, they had opened to the 100B case: "If this truly is the shib of base and we go to 100b, even on a crash it'll go to 1-5b." Interim marks included 150–200m on a DEGEN-style wave, 60–80m for TOBY and ~37m for Taboshi. These are long-horizon, speculative targets; the 2024–25 catalysts they watched for arrived on a slower clock, and they held through — buying more in Nov 2024, adding through the 2025 drawdown, and reading the April 2025 capitulations as lessons in risk management rather than reasons to exit.

Evolution

The arc is clear: 2024 was wallets, LP math and comparables; 2025–26 turned toward meaning. [2025-07-15] — "toby is a lesson in mirrors, its not what you say or do, but what emotions drove you to say or do such and such." They asked what a time-machine BTC buyer with no memory of the future would actually do, and answered it in practice — offering 777,777,777 TOBY and a Taboshi to a member who'd lost their bag. By Aug 2026 they describe holdings "beyond whale status" as "stewardship."

Their value to toadgang is that both halves are real: they'll pull the etherscan trail on a whale cluster, and then ask what your position size says about your relationship to regret.

Theories they push

Theories they endorse (via likes)

Concrete predictions (14)record: 1✓ 0✗

Price target$700 per 295M TOBY @ $1B mcap⏳ Pending

Airdrop wallets averaged 295M TOBY per wallet, worth ~$700 at $1B market cap

Market-cap target$1,000,000 per $1B mcap per 0.1%✅ Correct

0.1% of TOBY supply worth $1,000,000 per $1B of market cap

Market-cap target$1B-$5B⏳ Pending

Personal/realistic TOBY market cap target of 1-5B, more conservative than 100B comparisons to SHIB/DOGE

Market-cap target$150M-$200M⏳ Pending

If TOBY tracks DEGEN-chain-style distribution shakeout, next wave could reach 150-200M market cap

Market-cap target$100B⏳ Pending

100B market cap would be roughly 2x SHIB's prior cycle peak, plausible if TOBY becomes a top-10 project

Price target100B TOBY ≈ 1 median US house @ $1.68B mcap⏳ Pending

At $1.68B market cap, a 100B TOBY holding would equal roughly one median US house in value

Token mechanic10% supply⏳ Pending

10% of TOBY supply may be reserved for a Coinbase Wallet onboarding/airdrop program modeled on Coinbase Earn

Market-cap targetTaboshi ~$37M mcap / TOBY 60-80M range⏳ Pending

Taboshi price target ~$200 implying ~$37M market cap, alongside TOBY extending to 60-80M before consolidation

Timing / datesOct 17 / Nov 17⏳ Pending

October 17 (1017) date significance tied to epoch 2 ending November 17

Timing / dates~2027 unlock timing⏳ Pending

If this cycle tops November 2025 and 2026 is the bear bottom, Patience vault unlocks would land about one year into the new cycle

Supply / holders7 wallets⏳ Pending

Only 7 wallets hold whole quad-7s (7,777,777-pattern) TOBY amounts

Token mechanic⏳ Pending

Wallets that bought before a run-up and held without selling into the local peak became eligible for $patience

Token mechanic30 → 40 patience after 26 mints⏳ Pending

Patience mint requirement scales: 30 patience per mint normally, 40 patience per mint once a wallet exceeds 26 mints

Partnership / listing⏳ Pending

Amber Group-linked wallets consolidated TWAP-bought TOBY into a single wallet, suggesting institutional accumulation ahead of a listing